High Prices and the Impending Food Crisis—Short- and Long-Run Responses

Selected Presentations and Reports by the MSU Food Security Group

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Main Topics Covered:

• Impacts of and responses to rising commodity prices
• Building longer-run food security while managing food crises
  • (see also separate Web page on Emergency Response and Development)
• Fertilizer subsidies
• Contributions of regional food staples market development and trade to improving price stability and food security
• Effects of maize export bans in Zambia
• Cassava value chains and role in food security
• Agricultural growth linkages and the rural nonfarm economy
• Other key determinants of food security and agricultural growth
  • Economic returns to investments in agriculture
  • Soil fertility improvement: conservation farming in Zambia
• Trends in agricultural production, marketing, and prices

Impacts of and responses to rising commodity prices

Presentations

• Rising World Food Prices and their Implications for Food Security Policy in Eastern and Southern Africa. T. Jayne, A. Chapoto, and I. Minde. Presentation at Institute for African Development. Cornell University. August 28, 2008
• Agricultural Globalization in Reverse: The Impact of the Food Crisis in West Africa. John M. Staatz, Niama Nango Dembélé, Valerie Kelly, and Ramziath Adjao. Geneva Trade & Development Forum—Crans-Montana, Switzerland. September 17-20, 2008. PowerPoint Presentation.
• Potential Food Security Impacts of Rising Commodity Prices in the Sahel. Valerie Kelly, Nango Dembélé, John Staatz. 8 May 2008
• Using the Market During Food Crises: What has been Learned in Southern Africa over the Past Decade? David Tschirley and Thom Jayne. Presented at Vulnerability to and Early Warning for Food Emergencies: Conceptual Issues and Practical Implementation. FAO Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) on Food and Agriculture. FAO, Rome. December 6-7, 2007.
• Managing the 2004/05 West African Food Crisis: Why Were the Outcomes So Different in Niger and Mali? John Staatz, Valerie Kelly. Presentation to USAID/EGAT, AFR, and DCHA, Washington, March 1, 2006
• Regional Trade, Growth and Emergency Response: Strategic Options for Dealing with Recurrent Food Crises in Southern Africa. Round Table Discussion at USAID facilitated by Michigan State University Food Security III Cooperative Agreement. Thursday, November 17, 2005.

Reports

• Food Crises and Food Markets: Implications for Emergency Response in Southern Africa. David Tschirley and T.S. Jayne. MSU IDWP #94. 2008.
• Marketing Policy Options for Consumer Price Mitigation Actions In the 2008/09 Maize Marketing Season in Zambia. Antony Chapoto, Steven Haggblade, Julius Shawa, Thomas Jayne and Michael Weber.  FSRP Policy Synthesis Number 31, September 2008.
• Potential Food Security Impacts of Rising Commodity Prices in the Sahel. A special report for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) by Valerie Kelly, Nango Dembélé and John Staatz. 8 May 2008.
• Food Crises and Food Markets: Implications for Emergency Response in Southern Africa. David Tschirley and T.S. Jayne. MSU Policy Synthesis 82. July 2008.
• Food Crises and Food Markets: What has been Learned in Southern Africa over the Past Decade? David L. Tschirley and T.S. Jayne. Paper prepared for: "Vulnerability to and Early Warning for Food Emergencies: Conceptul Issues and Practical Implementation." A Workshop organized by the FAO Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) on Food and Agriculture, Trade and Markets Division FAO Headquarters, Rome (Italy), 6-7 December 2007

Building longer-run food security while managing food crises

Presentations

• Input for USAID’s Food Security Framework. Steven Haggblade. Prepared for a USAID food security strategy consultation in Washington DC, August 5, 2008.
  
• CAADP Pillar 3. Underlying Principles for Increased Food Supply. Duncan Boughton and Steve Haggblade. AU-NEPAD Food Security Workshop. Pretoria May 19-23, 2008.
• Building Long-Term Food Security while Managing Food Crises: Insights from Mali. John Staatz. Michigan State University. Presentation to USAID/AFR. July 28, 2005.

Reports

• Local and Regional Food Aid Procurement: an Assessment of Experience in Africa and Elements of Good Donor Practice. David Tschirley and Anne Marie del Castillo. MSU Policy Synthesis 79. November 2006. (CDIE reference number PN-ADI-219)
• Building local capacity to address long-term food security while dealing with short-term crises. Look at the first few pages of the first and the last annual reports of the Mali PROMISAM project, which lay out the food security setting in Mali (both short- and long-term) and how the Malian government, with USAID help, was trying to address both in an integrated manner.

Fertilizer subsidies

Presentations

• Fertilizer Subsidies and Sustainable Agricultural Growth in Africa:  Current Issues and Empirical Evidence from Malawi, Zambia, and Kenya.  Isaac Minde, T.S. Jayne, Joshua Ariga, Jones Govereh, and Eric Crawford.  Presentation by Jones Govereh at the IFDC workshop on “Strengthening Trade in Agricultural Inputs in Africa: Issues and Options” Taj Pamodzi Hotel, Lusaka, 1-4 July, 2008.

Reports

• Fertilizer Subsidies and Sustainable Agricultural Growth in Africa: Current Issues and Empirical Evidence from Malawi, Zambia, and Kenya. Isaac Minde, T. S. Jayne, Joshua Ariga, Jones Govereh, and Eric Crawford. Draft report prepared for Re-SAKSS Southern Africa, June 30, 2008.
• Alternative Approaches for Promoting Fertilizer Use in Africa. Eric W. Crawford, T. S. Jayne, and Valerie A. Kelly. Agriculture and Rural Development Department Discussion Paper 22. World Bank, 2006. (See executive summary. Also includes extensive discussion of arguments for and against fertilizer subsidies.)

Contributions of regional food staples market development and trade to improving price stability and food security

Presentations

• Regional Food Staples Market Development. Steven Haggblade. IEHA Coordination Meeting. January 24, 2008. (Emphasizes two tools for containing food price increases: regional trade and substitution among food staples.)
• Smallholder Farmer Behavior and Agricultural Productivity in Eastern and Southern Africa: Implications for Regional Trade. T.S Jayne. Panel Discussion, IEHA Coordination Meeting, USAID/Africa Bureau. Washington DC. January 24, 2008.
• Price Unpredictability, Trade Policy, and the Demand for Food Staples in Eastern and Southern Africa: An Application of the ARCH Model. Antony Chapoto and T.S. Jayne. Workshop on Appropriate Trade Policies for Agricultural Development in a Globalizing World FAO, Rome. 10-11 December 2007.
• Regional Trade in Food Staples: Using Trade Policy to Improve Farmer Incentives and Food Security. Jones Govereh. Food Security Research Project, MACO/ACF/MSU. Presentation at the International Conference on Strengthening and Widening Markets and Overcoming Supply Side Constraints for African Agriculture. Organized by the International Food and Trade Policy Council and the Partnership to Cut Hunger and Poverty in Africa. June 3-5, 2007.
• A Comparison of Maize Price Stability between Countries Supporting and Restricting Regional Trade. Antony Chapoto and T.S. Jayne. 2nd African Grain Trade Summit Nairobi, Kenya, April 18-19, 2007.

Reports

• Potential Consequences of Intra-Regional Trade in Short-Term Food Security Crises in Southeastern Africa. Steven Haggblade, Hunter Nielson, Jones Govereh and Paul Dorosh. Report 2. A report prepared by Michigan State University for the World Bank under contract No. 7144132, Strengthening Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa through Trade Liberalization and Regional Integration. June 28, 2008
• Alternative Instruments for Ensuring Food Security and Price Stability in Zambia. Paul A. Dorosh, Simon Dradri and Steven Haggblade. FSRP Working Paper No.29 Lusaka: Food Security Research Project. November 2007.
• Alternative Approaches for Moderating Food Insecurity and Price Volatility in Zambia. Paul A. Dorosh, Simon Dradri and Steven Haggblade. Policy Synthesis Number 24. November 2007.
• Improving the Performance of Output Markets to Exploit the Potential of Improved Seed. T.S. Jayne and Robert J. Myers. Chapter 6, pp. 95-134, in: Seed development programs in sub-Saharan Africa: A review of experiences, Nicholas Minot et al., Report prepared for the Rockefeller Foundation, 21 March 2007. (Ch. 6 includes discussion of market-based instruments for managing world price shocks.)
• Zambia’s 2005 Maize Import and Marketing Experiences: Lessons and Implications. Anthony Mwanaumo, T.S Jayne, Ballard Zulu, Julius Shawa, Green Mbozi, Steven Haggblade, and Misheck Nyembe. Number 11. December 2005.

Effects of maize export bans in Zambia

Reports

• Maize Price Projections for Zambia’s 2006/07 Marketing Season. Steven Haggblade. Policy Synthesis Number 15. June 2006.
• Maize Price Projections for the 2006/07 Marketing Season. Steve Haggblade. Zambian Farmer Magazine. June 2006.

Cassava value chains and role in food security

Presentations

• Zambia's Cassava Value Chain Task Force. Steven Haggblade. Presentation to the Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) Regional Resource Centre for Rural Development (RRD) meeting on Linking small-scale producers and processors access to dynamic and restructured local, regional and international markets for high value products, Frandilla Lodge, Chisamba, Zambia, 15-17 May, 2007.
• Dynamics of Zambia's Cassava Markets. Steven Haggblade. Presentation to the Acceleration of Cassava Utilization Task Force Round One Stakeholders' Workshop, Agricultural Consultative Forum, Lusaka, Zambia, February 1, 2007.

Reports

• Commercial Dynamics in Zambia's Cassava Value Chain. Cassava Transformation in Southern Africa (CATISA) Startup Task 3. Report. Steven Haggblade and Misheck Nyembe. Report. Lusaka: Zambia. December 30, 2007.
• Zonal Mapping of Food Staple Zones in Zambia, Malawi and Mozambique. Cassava Transformation in Southern Africa (CATISA) Startup Task 1. Report. Steven Haggblade and Hunter Nielson. Lusaka, Zambia. December 24, 2007.
• A Value Chain Task Force Approach for Managing Private-Public Partnerships:  Zambia’s Task Force on Acceleration of Cassava Utilization. Maureen Chitundu, Klaus Droppelmann and Steven Haggblade. Working Paper No. 21. Food Security Research Project. Lusaka, Zambia. December 2006.

Agricultural Growth Linkages and the Rural Nonfarm Economy

Reports

• Agricultural Growth Linkages in Ethiopia: Estimates Using Fixed and Flexible Price Models. Xinshen Diao, Belay Fekadu, Steven Haggblade, Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse, Kassu Wamisho, and Bingxin Yu. IFPRI Discussion Paper No. 00695. International Food Policy Research Institute. March 2007.
• The Rural Nonfarm Economy: Prospects for Growth and Poverty Reduction. Steven Haggblade, Peter B.R. Hazell and Thomas Reardon. Forthcoming, World Development.
• Chapters from: Transforming the Rural Nonfarm Economy: Opportunities and Threats in the Developing World. Steven Haggblade, Peter Hazell, and Tom Reardon (Eds.). Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. 2007.
  • Chapter 7. Sectoral Growth Linkages between Agriculture and the Rural Nonfarm Economy.
  • Chapter 11. The Policy and Institutional Environment Affecting the Rural Nonfarm Economy.
  • Chapter 12. An Overview of Programs for Promoting the Rural Nonfarm Economy.

Other key determinants of food security and agricultural growth

Presentations

• From Roller Coasters to Rocket Ships: Lessons from Past Successes in African Agriculture. Steven Haggblade. AGRA Policy Planning Workshop. Nairobi June 23-24, 2008
• Underappreciated Facts about African Agriculture: Implications for Poverty Reduction and Agricultural Growth Strategies. T.S Jayne. Seminar at African Studies Center, Michigan State University. September 13, 2007.

Reports

• Returns to Investment in Agriculture. Steven Haggblade. Policy Synthesis No. 19. Food Security Research Project. Lusaka, Zambia. January 2007.
• Development, Diffusion and Impact Evaluation of Conservation Farming in Zambia. Steven Haggblade and Gelson Tembo. Working Paper 8. Food Security Research Project. Lusaka, Zambia. January 2007.
• Smallholder Farming Under Increasingly Difficult Circumstances: Policy and Public Investment Priorities for Africa by T.S. Jayne, D. Mather, and E. Mghenyi. 2006. (CDIE reference PN-ADG-862)

Trends in agricultural production, marketing, and prices

Presentations

• Empirical Information on Smallholder Maize Production and Fertilizer Use In Zambia. Michael Weber.  Presentation at Fertilizer Support Programme Evaluation Kick-Off Workshop. Protea Safari Lodge, Zambia.  June 25-26, 2008

Reports

• Patterns of Maize Farming Behavior and Performance Among Small- and Medium-Scale Smallholders in Zambia.  A Review of Statistical Data From The CSO/MACO Crop Forecast Survey - 2000/2001 to 2007/2008 Production Seasons. By FSRP in cooperation with CSO and MACO to inform discussions on programs to deal with high food and input prices in 2008. Draft for comments, June 20, 2008.

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